April 08
By Claire Hansen
Forty percent of Republicans say they are more likely to vote for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP primary in the wake of charges connected to his role in a hush money scheme, according to a poll released Friday.
The poll paints a complicated picture of public opinion around the former president’s indictment and one that is split sharply along partisan lines. And while Trump’s stock seems to have risen among Republicans, there is modest consensus among all respondents that the charges in the indictment are believable, according to the survey, which was conducted by Reuters and Ipsos this week after Trump was arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday on charges of felony falsification of business records.
Thirty-three percent of Republicans are “much” more likely to support Trump after his indictment while another 7% say they are “somewhat” more likely – and another 38% say that it will not affect their vote either way. Meanwhile, nearly 60% of independents say it won’t affect their vote, while 20% say it makes them less likely to vote for the former president.
Prosecutors say Trump illegally falsified business records as part of a broader “catch-and-kill” scheme meant to bury negative stories about him during the 2016 election. Part of the scheme included hush money payments to a porn star who said that she had an extramarital affair with Trump a decade prior as well as to another woman who said she similarly had an affair.
Still, Trump continues to enjoy rising poll numbers among Republicans as the 2024 primary approaches, and it appears that Tuesday’s arraignment offered him a significant bump.
In a hypothetical primary with a wide field of possible candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – who is readying his campaign but has not formally announced his candidacy – Trump nabs 58% of the vote from Republicans and independents. That figure is a 10-point jump from the week prior, before Trump’s arraignment, and is up from 44% earlier in March.
DeSantis, meanwhile, comes in a distant second with 21% of the vote – a 9 point drop from March.
The new poll is yet another data point showing the widening gap between Trump and DeSantis among Republican primary voters.
Trump and most Republicans have accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of political motivations in bringing the charges against Trump. The legal theory Bragg has employed to elevate the charges from misdemeanors to felonies is untested, and legal experts say it could prove shaky.
According to the survey, 49% of all respondents, regardless of party, believe that Bragg’s office was right to bring charges against Trump, while 32% say it was incorrect. Another 19% were unsure. Opinion falls predictably among party lines: 84% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans say the charges were the right move.
Despite the split on charges, 60% of respondents think it is believable that Trump falsified business records and committed fraud – including nearly a third of Republicans and more than half of independents.
That number rises even more when asked about hush money payments to two women during the 2016 election: 78% of respondents, including 55% of Republicans, say it is believable that Trump paid Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal money so they would not talk about their
extramarital relationships during the 2016 presidential campaign.